Parameter Ledger

Best-supported values with reliability grades · Underconstrained variables

3.1 Geometry and Baseline Statistics

Parameter Symbol Value Source Reliability
Upstream mainstem length at Óbidos \(L_B\) ≈ 3 869 km UNH/GRDC [1] A
Mean discharge at Óbidos \(\bar{Q}\) ≈ 1.76 × 10⁵ m³/s UNH/GRDC [1] A
Annual harmonic amplitude \(B_1\) ≈ 6.4 × 10⁴ m³/s Verifier fit (1928–1996) A/B
Semiannual harmonic amplitude \(B_2\) ≈ 8.3 × 10³ m³/s Verifier fit (1928–1996) A/B
Amplitude ratio \(r = B_2/B_1\) ≈ 0.13 Derived A/B
Effective phase difference \(\delta\) ≈ 0.9 rad Verifier fit A/B

Reliability key: A = direct dataset summary or peer-reviewed measurement; A/B = peer-reviewed analysis or reproducible derived quantity; B = foundational but dated, or limited modern specificity.

3.2 Climate-Mode Modulation

Parameter Value / Statement Source Reliability
Flood magnitude + duration modulation Significant; ENSO "type" matters; regional dependence HESS [2] A/B
Flood timing modulation More heterogeneous; not uniformly significant HESS [2] A/B

3.3 Routing and Storage Physics

Parameter Value / Statement Source Reliability
Floodplain storage + backwater Required for timing/attenuation; validated against multi-data-stream obs. MGB-IPH / WRR [3] A/B

3.4 Threshold Evidence (Historical)

Parameter Value / Statement Source Reliability
Direct discharge reconnaissance Context and baseline; notes need for many more measurements USGS Circ. 552 [4] B

4. Underconstrained Variables

These items prevent upgrading "PROVISIONAL" entries to "PASS":